J&K, Bihar, Maharashtra OK For INDIA Seat-Sharing. Bengal An Issue: Sources

The INDIA alliance is moving closer to a national seat-sharing agreement amenable to all 28 members of the bloc, sources told NDTV Friday, as the clock ticks down to one of the most crucial elections in the country's history. A final decision is likely by the end of the month, sources said.

The push to conclude these talks as early as possible comes from concerns the Bharatiya Janata Party may try to pre-empt the opposition's efforts at unification by calling for an early election.

A deal - between over two dozen parties that have squabbled, made-up and squabbled again with each other over the past several elections - has been a big talking point since the bloc was formed. The focus will be on 'one-on-one' contests, i.e., picking one INDIA candidate - from the party with the best chance of defeating the BJP - for each seat, and counting on the others' full support on the campaign trail. The idea is simple - stem the division, or fracturing, of votes.

READ | Seat-Sharing Test As INDIA Eyes Common Minimum Programme In Meet

In some states agreements may be easy - for example in Maharashtra, where the Congress, the NCP and the Shiv Sena UBT are already allies. In others this may be more difficult; Bengal, for example, where there is little love lost between the ruling Trinamool and its rivals, the Congress and the CPIM.

The two sides each put up a candidate for last week's Dhupguri bypoll, resulting in a Congress + CPIM vs Trinamool slugfest. The Trinamool took the seat but the BJP was only 4,300 seats behind.

INDIA Seat-Sharing Talks Progress

Across the country there are 100 Lok Sabha seats in which the Congress is expected to go head-to-head with the BJP. There will, therefore, be no seat-sharing for these, sources have told NDTV.

As for the remaining 443, a deal is almost ready - between the Congress, the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party - for Jammu and Kashmir's five Lok Sabha seats.

For Maharashtra's 48 seats the Nationalist Congress Party, the Congress and ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena faction are nearing an understanding.

In Bihar the ruling Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal have almost completed an agreement with the Congress and a Left party for the state's 40 seats.

The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have to split Delhi's seven and Punjab's 13 seats, while the two are also expected to divide Gujarat's 26 seats between themselves.

The Bengal Conundrum?

A big question mark, though, lies over Bengal, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool has a decidedly frosty relationship with both the Congress and the CPIM-led Left Front.

Ms Banerjee is in Spain and talks over Bengal's 42 seats will commence on her return, sources said. She may be willing to withdraw from some seats to accommodate the Congress - given cordial relations with ex-party boss Sonia Gandhi - but an agreement with the CPIM will be harder.

The task may be harder still after INDIA's coordination committee announced plans to push for a caste census - something Ms Banerjee had opposed. The committee made the announcement on Wednesday - at a meeting the Trinamool's representative was unable to attend.

READ | Caste Census Divides INDIA Bloc, Political Resolution Dropped

"Will Contest Together..."

Earlier this month INDIA said it intends to contest all future elections together, but the "... as far as possible" addendum raised eyebrows. And in seven bypolls held last week - in which the bloc eased to a 4-3 win - that caveat was underlined after 'allies' fought each other in three states.

READ | "Will Contest Polls Together As Far As Possible": INDIA Bloc's Resolution

Two of INDIA's wins, though, came despite 'allies' fighting each other.

In Kerala it was the Congress vs the Communist Party of India (Marxist) but in Bengal it was the Trinamool Congress vs the Congress and the CPIM. The contests underlined the wording of the bloc's Mumbai declaration, which said INDIA plans to "contest polls together, as far as possible".

READ | Congress, Trinamool Win In Key Polls After INDIA Allies Fight Each Other

In a third bypoll - for Uttarakhand's Bageshwar - the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, who were allies for the UP bypoll, each fielded candidates and lost to the BJP by less than 2,500 votes.

For INDIA to be as effective as possible in dislodging the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it must maximise every opportunity, including presenting a united front as much as possible.

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